Hawking and Climate Change : Irreversibility

As world star physicist Stephen Hawking recently remarked: global warming is close to becoming irreversible. The theory of global warming (GW) could not be more relevant for mankind, as irreversibility probably entails human extinction. Neither the UNFCCC nor the G20 pay enough attention to the dangers of global warming. The COP23, hosted by threated Pacifc Island Fiji, must come up with the means and tools of decarbonisation, as CO2emissions must be reduced. Solar power parks will do, if backed globally.


INTRODUCTION
The COP21 objectives are: GOAL I: Halt CO2 increases by 2018-2020; some countries already have done so, but far from all; GOAL II: Reduce CO2 emissions by 30-40 per cent at 2005 levels, depending on how counts, by 2030an immense challenge; GOAL III: Complete decarbonisation by 2070-75.
Considering the probable damages from global warming, it is astonishing that global warming theory has not been better recognized or even conceptually developed or empirically corroborated. There will be sooner or later: This list is far from complete or exhaustive. One could even mention worse outcomes, like the transformations of warm and cold currents in the oceans -Gulf Stream, North Atlantic Current for example. What one may underline is that so far no known negative feedback has been found that could stem global warming naturally. We seem to have mainly only positive feedbacks, meaning outcomes reinforce each other in the same direction. The situation in the Amazons and Borneo is basically "lost", and Siberian forests threatened.

GW THEORY
French mathematician Joseph Fourier discovered global warming in the early 19 th century, but the theory was developed by Swedish chemist Arrhenius around 1895. He calculated that a doubling of CO2 ppm would be conducive to a 5 degree increase in global average temperature, which is not too far off the worst case scenario for the 21rst century, according to UN expertise now.  (Ramesh, 2015).
The part of GWT analyzing the coordination efforts within the UNFCCC as well as the different country responses to climate change is far less developed than the natural sciences' part. One finds practically nothing in the UNFCCC documents about the principal problems in large scale international governance, like e.g. defection. One may speak of two currents of social science theory that are highly relevant for GWT:

i) Implementation theory:
In the discipline of public administration and policy-making, some ideas about the so-called "implementation gap" -Wildavsky's hiatusare highly relevant to the COP21 project (Pressman and Wildavsky, 1973Wildavsky, , 1984. The COP21 has three main objectives: halt CO2 increases by 2018-2020 (GOAL I), decrease CO2 emissions considerable by 2030 (GOAL II) and achieve full decarbonistion by 2070-80 (GOAL III).
But how are they to be implemented? No one knows, because COP21 has neglected what will happen after the major policy decision. The COP21 project outlines many years of policy implementation to reach decarbonisation, but which are the policy tools?

ii) Game theory:
A CPR is vulnerable to the strategy of reneging, as analysed theoretically in the discipline of game theory. The relevant game for the CPR is the PD game, where the sub game perfect Nash equilibrium is defection in a finite version of this game (Dutta, 1999). This is not recognized by Elinor Ostrom (1990) in her too optimistic view about the viability of CPR:s. It is definitely not the case that Ostrom has overcome Hobbes ("And covenants, without the sword, are but words and of no strength to secure a man at all"), as one commentator naively declared when she was awarded both the Nobel Prize and the Johan Skytte prize (Rothstein' website 2014).
The COP21 project houses lots of reneging opportunities of various sorts, which will become clear as this CPR project moves forward. One major partner has already defected, which may trigger other governments to renege. The only way to control defection in this global CPR is to employ selective incentives, which is what the planned Super Fund could offer, if at all workable.

THE COP21: Implementation
All forms of energy be measured, and these measures are translatable into each othera major scientific achievement. One may employ some standard sources on energy consumption and what is immediately obvious is the immensely huge numbers involvedsee Table 1. It is true that a lot is happening with energy and emissions, but one tends to report only the positive news about coal reduction, more efficiency in energy consumption, new solar and wind plants. Sad to say, one bypasses the constantly increasing need for energy, the augmentation of air transportation, more cars and bigger engines, and first and foremost more human beings! The COP21 call for decarbonisation entails a sharp reduction of fossil fuels up until 2030 in order to stabilize climate change, involving a 30-40 decrease in CO2 emissions, measured against the 2005 level of emissions.
Let us first focus upon what this hoped for reduction of fossil fuels implies for the augmentation of renewable energy consumption, here solar power. The use of atomic power is highly contested, some countries closing reactors while others construct new and hopefully safer ones. I here bypass wind power and thermal power for the sake of simplicity in calculations.
Consider now Table 1, using the giant solar power station in Morocco as the benchmark -How many would be needed to replace the energy cut in fossil fuels and maintain the same energy amount, for a few selected countries with big CO2 emissions? If countries rely to some extent upon wind or geothermal power or atomic power, the number in Table  1 will be reduced. The key question is: Can so much solar power be constructed in some 10 years? If not, Hawkins may be right. Thus, the COP23 should decide to embark upon an energy transformation of this colossal size.
Solar power investments will have to take many things into account: energy mix, climate, access to land, energy storage facilities, etc. They are preferable to nuclear power, which pushes the pollution problem into the distant future with other kinds of dangers. Wind power is accused to being detrimental to bird life, like in Israel's Golan Heights. Geo-thermal power comes from volcanic power and sites.
Let us look at the American scene in Table 2.  It has been researched has much a climate of Canadian type impacts upon solar power efficiency. In any case, Canada will need backs ups for its many solar power parks, like gas power stations. Mexico has a very favourable situation for solar power, but will need financing from the Super Fund, promised in COP21 Treaty. In Latin America, solar power is the future, especially as water shortages may be expected. Chile can manage their quota, but Argentine needs the Super Fund for sure. Table 3 has the data for the African scene with a few key countries, poor or medium income.. Since Africa is poor, it does not use much energy like fossil fuels, except Maghreb as well as Egypt plus much polluting South Africa, which countries must make the energy transition as quickly as possible. The rest of Africa uses either wood coal, leading to deforestation, or water power. They can increase solar power without problems when helped financially.  Finally, we come to the European scene, where also great investments are needed, especially as nuclear power is reduced significantly and electrical cars will replace petrol ones, to a large extent. Is there space to build all these solar parks, one may ask. But many, many small houses with solar roofs will also do well. Public buildings and company offices may be run on solar power from their roofs! Innovation is needed everywhere. war in the Muslim civilization. To stop global warming, huge investments in solar power parks are necessary. It will be costly but eminently wothwile.