In this research work, Monte Carlo Simulation and degradation models were used to predict the corrosion rate and reliability of crude oil pipelines. Discrete random numbers simulated from Inline Inspection Data were used to predict the corrosion rate using Linear and Power Law Model. The mean time for failure (MTFF) was estimated with the degradation models. The result of the study shows that the degradation models and Monte Carlo simulation can predict the corrosion rate of the pipelines to an accuracy of between 83.05-98.33% and 84.24- 97.94% respectively. From the plot the lowest degradation recorded was 1.67% (Power law) and highest 16.95 (Power Law), for Linear Model Law, the lowest value recorded was 2.11% while the highest is 15.23%. In comparison to the value obtained from Monte Carlo Simulation (2.01 lowest and 15.76 highest), all the values fall between 1.67% to16.95%. Thus, RMSE of between 1.67% and 16.95% was recorded for the degradation models. Therefore, the statistical models give the expected number of failures. The results of the statistical models can be used in reliability analysis, risk analysis, and optimum maintenance decisions.
Corrosion rate, Simulation, Modelling, Reliability, Pipeline integrity
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