This study assesses the digital trade readiness of Ghanaian agro-processing SMEs ahead of the AfCFTA Digital Trade Protocol and examines whether absorptive capacity (AC) and social capital (SC) moderate the relationship between readiness and export propensity. A convergent mixed-methods design combines a survey of 387 firms, analysed with partial least squares structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM), and 28 interviews analysed through reflexive thematic analysis. Self-reported export status was validated against Ghana Export Promotion Authority archival records. Because the data are cross-sectional, the findings describe association rather than cause. Readiness is positively related to export propensity (beta = 0.412, p < 0.001), and the association is stronger for firms with greater AC (beta = 0.187, p < 0.01) and SC (beta = 0.163, p < 0.05). A disaggregated, exploratory analysis suggests the moderating effect is carried mainly by the acquisition and exploitation dimensions, a pattern flagged for replication rather than offered as settled. Qualitatively, severe market-access barriers can override readiness. The cross-sectional design supports association, not causation; reverse causality cannot be excluded, and the dimension-level results are exploratory and may be underpowered. The validated instrument doubles as a diagnostic tool for locating readiness deficits by sub-sector and region, informing targeted, sequenced capability-building during Protocol implementation. The paper offers a validated, Protocol-anchored, six-dimension firm-level readiness instrument and integrated mixed-methods evidence on AC and SC as moderators in an under-studied sector.
AfCFTA Digital Trade Protocol; digital trade readiness; SME export performance; Ghana.
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